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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still